DRAM contract prices forecast to grow only 13-18% in Q3

The forecast predicts that DRAM contract prices will only increase by 13-18% in Q3, as the relentless rise in memory prices may be losing momentum. PC and smartphone consumers are reaching the limits of their budgeting capabilities. Taiwanese market watcher Trend Force reports a 59.5% quarter-on-quarter jump in industry revenue to $154.73 billion in Q2, driven by rising DRAM contract prices.

Analysts now expect conventional DRAM contract price growth to moderate to 13-18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting a shift in demand away from high-capacity RDIMMs towards lower-capacity products, as well as the limited ability of PC and smartphone customers to absorb further price increases. Supplier inventories remain at historically low levels, with total bit shipments expected to grow modestly, causing prices to climb more slowly and supplies to remain tight.

Market intelligence firm Context warns that European PC shipments are set to decline further due to rising component costs pushing up system prices. PC shipments are expected to decline by 6.4% year-on-year in Q3, followed by a 20% fall in Q4, with desktop shipments expected to drop around 20% in Q3 and almost 30% in Q4. Despite declining shipments, PC makers have benefited from higher prices, which have more than compensated for the fall in volumes.

Corporate buyers are extending refresh cycles and only acquiring new PCs when necessary. The opportunity for the channel lies in helping customers prioritize where refreshes are essential, devices can remain in service longer, and where investment in newer, more capable systems makes commercial sense. AI PCs, initially expected to trigger a mass upgrade wave, are becoming standard in newer devices due to the end of Windows 10 support.

Major memory makers continue to focus on high-end products for the AI market, while second-tier manufacturers meet demand for mature-process products.