Conflicting oil, inflation exchange rate forecasts behind budget gaps — FG

The Federal Government has acknowledged that conflicting macroeconomic projections from various agencies responsible for fiscal and monetary policy have contributed to budget shortfalls. This has prompted the establishment of an inter-agency committee to harmonise key assumptions used for budgeting and economic planning. Prime Minister, Oluwole Balogun, said the decision aimed to reduce discrepancies between planned and actual economic outcomes, thereby improving fiscal planning and credibility for investors and citizens.

The committee will address differences in projections for crude oil prices, production, exchange rates, inflation, and non-oil revenue, as well as inconsistencies in reporting major economic indicators. The Ministry of Finance was designated as the coordinating custodian for national economic data, with individual agencies responsible for their datasets.

The development comes amid positive economic indicators, including a 4.43% year-on-year growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026 and a strengthened naira against the dollar. The government also plans to increase agriculture's contribution to economic growth by addressing post-harvest losses, expanding processing and mechanisation, and ensuring timely capital allocations.