Can Iraq Really Replace Saudi Arabia As The Middle East’s Top Oil Producer?

Iraq may soon surpass Saudi Arabia as the Middle East's leading oil producer. Historically, Iraq's oil production averaged 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1973 to 2026, but this figure rose to 4.14 million bpd before a global oil transit route blockade began in February. Saudi Arabia's production averaged 8.29 million bpd over the same period, but it never reached its claimed capacity consistently.

Iraq holds approximately 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, with unofficial estimates of another 215 billion barrels in undiscovered resources. The Integrated National Energy Strategy (INES) report predicts Iraq's oil production could increase to between 8 and 10 million bpd within six years, potentially surpassing Saudi Arabia's current output.

This projection is supported by recent improvements in Iraq's anti-corruption efforts, the return of Western oil firms, and the completion of a major French mega-project by TotalEnergies.