BN holds advantage as Melaka election arithmetic shifts
KUALA LUMPUR: With Melaka edging closer to a state election, the political arithmetic is shifting, with Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional weighing their options ahead of a possible dissolution of the state assembly by the end of the month.
Malaysia's Barisan Nasional (BN) holds a significant advantage as electoral arithmetic for the upcoming Melaka state election shifts. The ruling coalition, currently holding 21 of the 28 seats in the state assembly, is eyeing a possible dissolution of the assembly by the end of the month.
Experts suggest BN's strength is rooted in its established support base, particularly in rural and Malay-majority constituencies. However, the success of BN's electoral strategy remains uncertain, as it grapples with the decision to compete alone or form alliances with other blocs. Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia posits that BN can retain the state without an alliance, but cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) could maximize its gains.
PH's urban and non-Malay-majority areas complement BN's rural and Malay-majority support, making a PH alliance advantageous for BN. On the other hand, a BN-Pakatan Nasional (PN) pact could consolidate Malay support but risk alienating non-Malay and moderate voters. Dr Ariff Aizuddin Azlan of Universiti Teknologi Mara asserts that BN's established support base allows it to retain the state alone, while PN's strongest prospects lie in Malay-majority seats.
However, three-cornered contests could benefit either side, depending on how opposition votes are split. Universiti Sains Malaysia's Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian maintains BN as the frontrunner but cautions against using the 2021 result as a direct benchmark. He emphasizes the importance of Malay support, younger voters, and turnout, with the outcome ultimately hinging on which coalition can avoid splitting its own vote bank.
The Melaka election's complexity is further heightened by recent developments, such as DAP's withdrawal of support for the Melaka government and Umno Youth chief Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh's warning against BN entering an electoral pact with PH. As the possible dissolution draws near, the focus has shifted from who can win Melaka to who can devise the most effective electoral formula.
Written by urgent.news from New Straits Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
