Trump weighs declaring protracted war over, but Iran has other plans

President Donald Trump finds himself grappling with the question of how to end a prolonged war in Iran, while the Iranian regime shows no signs of wanting to conclude the conflict. According to the Wall Street Journal, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has quietly extended troop deployments into 2027, suggesting the war could persist well into the next year.

Simultaneously, Trump has been in talks with aides about officially declaring the war over, a notion met with official support. However, the objectives of the war – preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and effecting regime change – have not been realized. Iran retains stocks of highly enriched uranium, and Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the new leader following the death of his father Ali Khamenei, maintains firm control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global oil and gas transport, remains largely open, defying initial war goals. At this juncture, Trump is reportedly contemplating declaring the war over, despite both nations enduring hardships. The war has inflicted significant pain on both the US and Iran, but the political fallout differs between the two nations.

For Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, despite initial shock, is unlikely to yield to domestic discontent over dwindling resources. Conversely, for Trump, the situation is more precarious. Despite his claims, he cannot run for another term, yet his Republican Party faces critical challenges. With a midterm election looming in November, the party might lose control of the House and potentially the Senate, a situation reflecting widespread discontent with the Trump administration.

Additionally, Trump's recent decision to impose trade tariffs on Canada has sparked outrage among Republican representatives representing border states, threatening to be the final blow to his support among those constituents.