‘Something much bigger’: Trump planning major Middle East reset after Iran war

US President Donald Trump is reportedly developing a significant Middle East strategy following the conclusion of the Iran war, according to Axios. The initiative, which forms part of a larger post-Iran war approach, aims to curb Tehran's influence in the region while promoting normalisation between Israel and its neighbors. The strategy is currently in the early stages of development and will guide Washington's approach to the Middle East during the remaining two years of Trump's second term.

Two US officials cited by Axios revealed that Trump has engaged in discussions with senior advisers to refine the plan, describing it as "something much bigger" in the Middle East post-Iran war. The proposed strategy comprises three main elements: regional alignment, addressing the fallout from the October 7, 2023, attacks, and expanding the Abraham Accords.

One proposed element involves forming an alliance among US allies in the Gulf to contain Iran, with Washington acting as a guarantor. Another aspect focuses on resolving the consequences of the October 7 attacks by securing the next phase of Trump's Gaza plan, establishing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement. Lastly, the strategy suggests broadening the existing Abraham Accords and pursuing a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

However, the planning process for this strategy may be impacted by two major events: the Israeli Knesset election in October and the US midterm elections in November. The Israeli election is considered more significant, given that current projections suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's defeat. Despite this potential outcome, some US officials emphasized that Trump remains committed to implementing his post-war plan, regardless of the Israeli election results.