Next Wave: Why Uber broke in Nigeria

On Wednesday morning, commuters in Lagos and Kampala were met with a stark message: "No trips available" upon opening their Uber apps. This sudden shutdown marked the end of Uber's 12-year presence in Nigeria and 10-year tenure in Uganda. At the same time, Uber's CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, announced the elimination of approximately 3,300 corporate jobs worldwide, reflecting a strategic realignment towards autonomous vehicle technology in major Western cities.

Uber's departure from key African markets was not an isolated incident. The company had previously exited Côte d'Ivoire at the end of 2025, pulled out of Tanzania in early 2026, and had already stopped offering its budget UberX service in South Africa. These exits shared a common denominator: the economic viability of ride-hailing services had eroded under recent macroeconomic shifts.

The fundamental economics of app-based passenger transport in Nigeria were deteriorating. The three key variables – platform commissions, vehicle expenses, and fares – were no longer in balance. Nigeria's decision to remove the petrol subsidy and let the naira float in mid-2023 led to a quadrupling of fuel prices. Coupled with the weakened currency, import costs for vehicle parts and supplies surged, making vehicle maintenance an increasingly costly affair for independent drivers.

This economic upheaval left Uber in a precarious position. Raising fares to align with inflation would have deterred white-collar commuters whose salaries had stagnated, while keeping prices low would have forced driver earnings below the poverty line. In response, Uber adopted a middle ground, but this appeasement only fueled discontent. The Amalgamated Union of App-Based Transport Workers of Nigeria (AUATON) staged a strike in March 2026, protesting the persistently high commission rate of 25%.

The situation became even more untenable as vehicle renewal stalled. High import tariffs and steep interest rates made it impossible for drivers to afford new vehicles, rendering Uber's strict age guidelines unenforceable. Competitors like Estonia's Bolt quickly capitalized on this weakness, gaining a dominant market share of 55% to 60% in Nigeria, compared to Uber's dwindling 25% to 30%.

Bolt managed to capture this lead by adopting a lower commission of 20%, offering a more diverse fleet, and focusing on secondary cities where costs remained manageable.

InDrive further eroded Uber's market position with an unbundled peer-to-peer bidding model and a platform take rate of under 10%. Instead of implementing automated surge pricing, which would have burdened cash-strapped commuters, inDrive facilitated direct negotiations between passengers and drivers, offering a more flexible and affordable service.

Caught in a web of escalating costs, shrinking market share, and stiff competition, Uber's once-promising venture in Nigeria and Uganda finally came to an end.