Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt: Spitzenkandidaten Siegmund und Schulze geben Stimme ab

The election is over, now the decision must be made: a new Landtag is being chosen in Sachsen-Anhalt today. Around 1.7 million people are called to vote. For the first time, attention for the election and possible alliance options went beyond the small federal state. The AfD, which is classified as right-wing extremist by the constitution guard in Sachsen-Anhalt, could for the first time come to power in a federal state.

Currently, the CDU, SPD and FDP have been governing in Magdeburg. However, according to all surveys, this coalition will lose its majority. The strongest force by a wide margin is expected to be the AfD. In the most recent poll before the election, the AfD with its candidate Ulrich Siegmund received 41 percent. The CDU, led by Minister-President Sven Schulze, was at 23 percent in the survey published on Thursday.

Third place went to the Left with 11.5 percent, the SPD was at 8.5 percent, the Greens were at 6 percent. The BSW and the FDP were below the five percent threshold. 26 percent of respondents said they were still unsure whether or who they want to vote for. No one wants to partner with the AfD - and the AfD wants to partner alone.

Should the AfD not achieve an absolute majority, it would need alliance partners to come to power. However, none of the other parties is willing to form a coalition with it. Siegmund has recently reaffirmed that he will only stand for the election as government chief if his party achieves an absolute majority and can govern alone.

If the AfD fails to achieve this goal, a CDU-led minority government could emerge, which would then have to rely on votes from the Left - similar to how it is in Saxony and Thuringia. The problem is that the CDU rejects any coalition or "similar forms of collaboration" with the Left, as well as with the AfD, in a party resolution.

Schulze's scenario of a majority for the so-called middle parties - like CDU, SPD and Greens - seems very unlikely given the polls. The duel between Schulze, who became Minister-President after Reiner Haseloff's resignation just this January, and Siegmund, the AfD's main challenger, has only been going on since. Schulze, who had never been a Minister-President before, could not benefit from the incumbent bonus as much as a long-time Minister-President.

In the last survey from the research group Wahlen for ZDF, Schulze received 48 percent in the question of who people would prefer as Minister-President, but still came out ahead of the AfD's Siegmund (34 percent), who was widely celebrated as a popstar at many of his campaign appearances. What happens after the election? In two weeks, elections will be held in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.

Just like now in Sachsen-Anhalt, it will also impact federal politics. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz had recently dismissed speculation that he could be ousted from his position by his own party in case of a CDU debacle in the September elections. The first session of the new Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt must take place at the latest 30 days after the election, that is, on October 6th.

Then the mandates of the ministers and government chief also end. However, they are obliged by constitution to continue the business until their successors take over. There is no deadline for when a new government chief must be chosen, but there are deadlines for possible further rounds of elections, should the first and further ones fail.