Landtagswahl: Absolute Mehrheit knapp verfehlt? Was das für die AfD hieße

After the Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt, a loud gong heralds the start of the Sunday evening broadcast at 18:00. The blue AfD bar in the charts soars to an unprecedented height, indicating a likely outcome of over 44 percent - although, initially, it would not guarantee the sole government, as the election campaign had promised.

Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD, exclaimed during a first reaction on ZDF, calling it an "historical result" and stating that the strongest party has the mandate to form a government. Weidel added, "Our hand is always extended." AfD's chief candidate Ulrich Siegmund had already made it clear during the election that he only wanted to govern alone.

On election night, he said that he would reach out to forces that wanted to change the country like the AfD, but remained unclear about what and who he meant. Other parties ruled out coalitions with the AfD. No government, no risks is what the AfD now faces. For the AfD, it is initially a furious victory with a slight bitter aftertaste, as the sole government was not enough.

If no cooperation with other parties comes about and the AfD remains in opposition, it could have strategic benefits: no government, no risks. In any case, the party won: the best result since the party's founding 13 years ago, with a significantly larger force than the CDU. The AfD now has significantly more power in the new Landtag.

They can independently appoint investigation committees and block decisions that require two-thirds majorities, such as constitutional changes. Bilaterally, they can use the argument of strong backing from the electorate to criticize other parties, federal, and state governments with even more force. The complicated majority finding beyond the AfD and possibly a CDU collaboration with the Left could also provide a lasting political offensive for the AfD.

While not governing would mean that the AfD would not gain experience in the executive and thus build up corresponding personnel, it would also spare them from the risks. They would not have to prove that they implement their announced projects, clean administration, and would also avoid responsibility for potential failures. In a federated state with a legal division of powers, each party has limits to the design space, even in government.

In a government scenario, the AfD might face the same as other parties, where voters could turn away again because expectations are disappointed, with consequences for the ambitions of the federal AfD, which had been as low as 27 to 29 percent in recent polls. That is why Siegmund had already declared in Sachsen-Anhalt that they had already written history.

He had ambitiously aimed for "45 percent plus X" to govern alone, but he had also prepared for the eventuality that it might not be enough for the desired absolute majority. Regardless of the election outcome, "we have already written history." Siegmund, 35 years old, has become the center of media attention in recent months through countless public appearances and social media contributions.

The whole election campaign was tailored around him. Supporters celebrated Siegmund like a pop star, people lined up for selfies and autographs. Even without the Minister-President's office, his weight in the AfD had greatly increased, and party strategists would likely see his election style as a template for future campaigns.