KeyBanc warns Apple’s iPhone 18 launch may be a negative catalyst for shares

KeyBanc Capital Markets has issued a cautionary note about Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 launch event on September 9th, suggesting that the event could negatively impact the company's stock price. The investment firm highlights concerns over pricing and the potential consequences of higher costs on demand and profit margins.

Apple may either increase prices across the board to counteract the margin pressure or raise prices selectively, which could intensify scrutiny on margins and potentially pave the way for additional price hikes in the future.

The research firm maintains an "Underweight" rating on Apple shares, with a price target of $250, while the current market price stands at $324.96. KeyBanc anticipates Apple unveiling three new iPhones at the event: the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and a first-generation foldable iPhone called the Fold/Ultra. Additionally, they expect two new Apple Watch models, new AirPods, and further details on the rollout of iOS 27.

The iPhone 18 Pro is projected to maintain a 6.3-inch screen, but it will be equipped with an A20 Pro chip, a C2 modem, and a variable-aperture camera. The Pro Max is anticipated to keep its 6.9-inch display and feature a larger battery. Meanwhile, the Fold/Ultra could have a 5.5-inch display when folded and a 7.8-inch screen when unfolded.

KeyBanc Projects a total of 80 million iPhone 18 units produced in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027, a decline from approximately 91 million units in the same periods of the previous year. The reduction in volume is primarily attributed to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model, with higher pricing and a more diverse product range expected to partially offset the lower sales.

The brokerage anticipates a $150 price hike for the iPhone 18 Pro, bringing its price to $1,249; a $200 price increase for the Pro Max, raising its price to $1,399; and a $2,199 price tag for the Fold/Ultra.

Historically, Apple's stock has tended to decline after iPhone announcements, according to KeyBanc. Over the past five years, the company's shares have typically dropped by 0.72% on the announcement day and by 1.22% five trading days later.