Job growth but record-high diesel prices – Trump's midterms mixed bag

President Donald Trump's Republican Party received mixed results ahead of midterm elections, as the US economy showed strong growth in jobs but faced record-high diesel prices that could fuel inflation. In August, the US added 162,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1 percent, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Diesel prices surged 55 percent since the start of the Iran war in late February, reaching a new record. The Federal Reserve's next interest rate-setting meeting is anticipated, with strong job growth expected to allow the central bank to focus on keeping long-term inflation at its two-percent target. However, the Fed has fallen short of that target for over five years, with consumer inflation at 3.3 percent in July. The Fed data for August is expected next week.

Record-high diesel prices have been driven by Trump's war on Iran and his signature tariff policies. Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but has since dropped. Several Fed policymakers have indicated they would consider raising interest rates if August's data does not show a downward trend in inflation. Donald Trump linked raising interest rates to Washington's trade ties with other countries, threatening to stop trading with nations with which the US has a trade deficit.

He also criticized falling stock markets due to expectations of a Fed rate hike, stating that success should not be killed by fear of inflation. Trump called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting a range of 0.5 to 1.0 percent.

The job report revealed growth in the restaurant and bar sectors, as well as a rebound in public school jobs from a previous contraction. However, average hourly earnings increased by only 3.1 percent year-on-year, lagging behind inflation, indicating that many workers are seeing their salaries contract in real terms. The health care sector, a significant job driver due to population aging, expanded at a slower pace than its average over the past year.

Analysts forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to at least three percent in Q3, driven by strong labor market conditions, resilient consumer spending, and continued investment in artificial intelligence.