How Climate Change and Food Insecurity Could Fuel Conflicts
Climate change, conflict, and trade tensions are putting pressure on the global food system.
The world's food system is facing growing stress due to severe droughts, extreme weather, and geopolitical tensions, which could potentially fuel conflicts. A new research tool, the Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI), highlights regions where climate change is already reducing food production and may worsen in the coming years.
Countries like Cambodia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Nigeria, Paraguay, and El Salvador are already experiencing smaller harvests compared to 30 years ago. Northern Africa is also a region of concern, with climate change posing a significant threat to food security.
The research suggests that rising food insecurity could lead to instability, as people may argue over resources or move to find food. In fragile countries, these pressures can contribute to social unrest and armed conflict. However, the research also reveals a surprising aspect: agricultural productivity gains can increase the risk of violence, as competition for land and resources intensifies.
Countries that appear to benefit from climate change may face new tensions, as land that was previously marginal becomes more productive and valuable. In Sudan, for example, the country is projected to produce more food, but this could lead to competition and conflicts over land ownership and access.
Even in stable, wealthy regions, the climate crisis is creating future problems. For instance, changes in grape-growing options in Europe are affecting local farmers, and major producers of sparkling wine are buying up land in mountainous regions, leading to displacement and potential conflicts.
The research warns that non-democracies are more likely to experience conflict due to climate-related pressures, as democracies have institutions that encourage negotiations instead of violence. South Asia and the Sahel are identified as regions of particular concern, due to their high vulnerability to climate change and rapid population growth. These areas could see a significant increase in the number of people affected by climate-related issues, leading to major crises and displacement.
Written by urgent.news from Tempo.co English's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
