‘반도체 호황’ 경상수지 흑자 규모, GDP 대비 20% 근접…통계 작성 이래 처음

South Korea's semiconductor exports are surging, leading to a record-breaking black figure for the first time since statistics were compiled. In the first half of this year, from July, the black figure for the country's semiconductor exports stood at $2330.9 billion, nearly quadrupling compared to the same period last year ($598.2 billion).

The ratio of South Korea's black figure to its gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be as high as 20% by the end of the year, according to projections from major international investment banks such as Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. This is a 3.0 percentage point increase from the previous month's 14.7%. The ratio has risen dramatically within a single month, with Citigroup raising its projection from 16.5% to 18.9% and Goldman Sachs from 13.9% to 18.7%.

Investment banks' forecasts for South Korea's GDP black ratio surpassing the nominal gross domestic product have never been higher since the inception of international statistics in 1980. The previous peak was in 1998, during the foreign currency crisis when the nominal GDP declined sharply, leading to a "black recession" (import decrease-led black) for the first time.

South Korea's black figure to GDP ratio has been growing due to improved trade conditions and stronger semiconductor export competitiveness. According to Park Jung-woo, an economist at Nongmu Securities, past Korean black figures were mainly driven by domestic investment and consumption in a recessionary environment, while now, the growth is mainly due to trade conditions and semiconductor export competitiveness improvements.

The semiconductor cycle benefit is also evident in Taiwan, making the gap between Taiwan's black figure ratio to GDP even smaller. According to major international investment banks, Taiwan's GDP black figure ratio is projected to be 20.6% by the end of the year, compared to South Korea's 7.0% (as of the end of last year). This significant reduction in the gap highlights the rapid growth in South Korea's semiconductor industry.