From abundance to aridity — El Niño poses threat to SA’s summer grain crop
Following a strong harvest, South African farmers prepare for a challenging summer grain season, with rising El Niño conditions threatening severe late-season drought and heatwaves.
South Africa's summer grain and oilseed crops are facing a significant threat due to the intensifying El Niño conditions, according to Wandile Sihlobo, the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
The eastern regions of South Africa, which are the main areas for growing yellow maize and soybeans, currently have good soil moisture levels. This is thanks to a prolonged summer rainfall period that lasted until mid-May. However, the 2026-27 planting season, which is expected to begin in mid-October, is facing uncertainties.
During the August 28 month, about 14.4 million tons of maize were delivered to commercial silos, which is lower than the expected 17.4 million tons. The crop's quality remains good, but the overall yield was below expectations. This situation is expected to continue as the country moves into an El Niño year, which is predicted to bring severe late-season drought and heatwaves.
The South African Weather Service (Saws) has warned that South Africa is heading towards a challenging summer season. While there may still be some above-normal rainfall expected in the eastern parts of the country during early summer, the central interior and far northeast are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. This could result in significant moisture deficits for the latter part of the season, especially for rain-fed crops.
It is important to note that irrigation plays a limited role in summer field crops, with only about 20% of summer grains and oilseeds being irrigated. Most of these products are rain-fed. In contrast, fruits and vegetables, which are 100% irrigated, could potentially benefit from higher water levels in dams when the drought starts.
Given the projected weather conditions, the 2026-27 summer crop season is expected to start from mid-October in the eastern regions of South Africa. While the recent maize harvest has covered South Africa's annual needs and those of neighboring countries, the challenges posed by the El Niño could lead to a different agricultural season, potentially impacting the overall performance of the industry.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Maverick's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
