Can the AfD form a government in Saxony-Anhalt?

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has made a significant impact on German politics by significantly increasing its vote share in a state election. In the recent election held in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD captured over 44% of the vote, more than double their previous result from 2021. While the AfD has not been able to form a government on its own, their success has shaken the political establishment and raised concerns about the potential for far-right parties to gain power in the future.

The AfD's rise to power has been driven by several factors. Political analysts have noted that the party's appeal extends beyond just East Germany, as it has become the second-most popular party in many German electorates and is currently the most popular party in most national polls. Additionally, a significant portion of voters, 88%, believe that if their current government had implemented better policies, the AfD would not have gained such strong support.

Despite the AfD's anti-migrant stance, immigration was not the primary concern for voters, ranking only 16% in exit polls. Instead, concerns about the economy, education, lack of basic infrastructure and services, and employment opportunities were more pressing. The quality of life in the state is seen as slipping away, with voters blaming both migrants and mainstream politicians for these issues.

In terms of forming a coalition, the only party that could potentially join the AfD is the minor Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party. However, the BSW has recently shifted towards increasing nationalism, moving further to the right than its original democratic socialist beliefs. If the AfD were to form a coalition with the BSW, it would only require a minor party to slip under the 5% vote threshold needed to earn a seat in the state parliament, allowing the AfD to secure an outright majority.

The rise of the AfD and similar far-right parties in other European countries highlights a global trend of disillusionment with liberal democracy and the growing appeal of far-right nationalism. This shift could have significant implications for global issues such as the unity of the European Union, the war in Ukraine, and the future of NATO in Europe.

As the far-right gains traction, it is essential to remain vigilant and address the underlying issues that contribute to this rise in order to maintain democratic norms and protect the unity of Europe and the world.