Atiku Playing to the Gallery, 15 Northern States will Collapse If Subsidy Returns, Don Warns

Professor Tunji Ogunyemi of Obafemi Awolowo University has cautioned that reintroducing petrol subsidies in Nigeria could leave around 15 northern states unable to function for up to three months. The warning came in response to Atiku Abubakar's campaign pledge to bring back the subsidy if elected as the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress in 2027.

Ogunyemi stated that such a move would strain the Federation Account, which is a primary source of revenue for most states. He explained that most states rely heavily on the Federation Account for funding their operations, and reducing the resources from this account would leave many states without the financial support they need to function.

He identified Lagos, Delta, and Rivers as states that could manage without substantial federal allocations, while citing Taraba as an example of a state whose finances are heavily dependent on the Federation Account. Ogunyemi warned that the sudden reduction in funds from the account would lead to a state of incapacity to pay salaries and pensions in many states.

He also highlighted that the federal government would face challenges in funding its own recurrent and capital expenditures if the revenue from the subsidy were to decline. He estimated that between 60 and 70 percent of the federal government's expenditure is currently met through recurrent spending, and reducing this revenue would have a significant impact on the government's ability to meet its obligations.

Ogunyemi also questioned Atiku's proposal, arguing that he should be more transparent about the potential consequences of reintroducing the subsidy. He noted that Atiku, having previously served as vice-president, should be more explicit about the implications of his proposal. The removal of the subsidy by President Bola Tinubu in May 2023 led to a sharp increase in petrol prices and higher living costs.

The federal government defended the decision, stating that it freed up resources for other levels of government. The finance ministry reported that the removal of the subsidy generated an estimated N15.8tn in resources for the federation between June 2023 and December 2025.