US employment rate likely to be unchanged
WASHINGTON: US payrolls growth likely rebounded in August as the drag from local government education reversed, but the anticipated recovery could be limited by job losses related to the termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants. The Labour Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to paint a picture of a labour market that economists say remains…
The US labor market appears set to show little change in August, with economists forecasting the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1percent, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The Labor Department's upcoming employment report is expected to highlight a "slow hire, slow fire" trend, as job growth has slowed since a surge in the spring, with factors including oil price shocks, supply chain strains from the US-led Iran war, and President Trump's import tariffs in 2025 cited as contributors.
The anticipated rebound in payrolls due to the termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants may be limited, with a 15,000 drag on the labor market forecasted, potentially offsetting gains in leisure and hospitality. The termination of TPS, which affects an estimated 160,000 of national payrolls, could cause job losses in labor-intensive services sectors.
The Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting is not likely to be impacted by the August employment report, but concerns over inflation and the Fed's lack of forward guidance have boosted US Treasury yields, potentially weighing on the struggling housing market.
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