September CMBS Maturities Carry Higher Refinance Risk

September saw private-label CMBS hard maturities totaling $2.74 billion across 100 whole loans, a decrease from $5.49 billion in August. Of the maturing balance, 26.96% of loans have a current debt yield below 6%, up from 18.13% the previous month. Retail properties face the steepest severe impairment risk, while office properties account for the majority of special servicing exposure among the September cohort.

Despite a smaller maturity cohort, September presents a weaker refinance profile compared to previous months. Trepp's analysis indicates $2.74 billion across 109 loan pieces and 100 whole loans maturing in September, down from $5.49 billion in August. However, 26.96% of the balance has a current debt yield below 6%, which Trepp classifies as severely impaired for refinancing.

Most loans in the September balance are still current, with $2.65 billion or 96.4% of the cohort performing, while $98.7 million is non-performing. The larger forward risk lies in loans that have not yet defaulted, with 93.05% of the severely impaired balance still performing ahead of maturity. Half of the September cohort has a debt yield below 8%, with 26.96% below 6%.

Special servicing exposure stands at 26.22% of the total balance. Trepp's broader 2026 analysis projects $76.6 billion in hard maturities for the year, with 39% maturing in Q4. Notably, 36% of the annual balance is at or below an 8% debt yield. Hard maturities, lacking remaining contractual extension options, require borrowers to repay or negotiate directly with lenders upon maturity.

Retail accounts for $719.64 million, or 26.22%, of September's hard maturities, with a severe debt-yield profile. Two loans, including a New York single-asset, single-borrower retail loan with a 4.86% debt yield and a super-regional mall split across three loan pieces at a 5.69% debt yield, comprise $375 million of the impaired retail balance.

Office properties make up $1.48 billion, or 53.82%, of the September cohort, and 74.94% of all special servicing balance. However, office impairment is less severe than retail, with 45.67% of the balance below an 8% debt yield, but only 14.21% below 6%.