Republicans sour on the economy

For the past six months, Republicans' confidence in the economy has plummeted at a rate not seen since the Covid pandemic, echoing the economic decline during the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago. This is particularly striking given that, historically, the president's party is typically upbeat about the economy while the opposition party is more pessimistic.

This shift in sentiment for Republicans, even with a Republican president in office, adds to a growing list of concerning indicators heading into the final two months of the election.

Consumer sentiment among Republicans has dropped 15.1 index points, from 97.1 to 82 since February, according to the latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers data. Democratic sentiment has only declined by 1.6 points, from 41.8 to 40.2. This is the lowest point in the reading during either of Trump's presidencies, with the exception of December 2020 following his loss in reelection but before his departure from office.

Typically, the economic outlooks of both parties move together, but this is not the case now. Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, noted that Republicans had high expectations from the administration's policies, such as tariffs, but these expectations have not been met. Inflation has not slowed down, and the promised reduction in prices has not materialized.

Despite this slide, Republicans still maintain a more positive outlook on the economy compared to Democrats, even believing that gas prices will fall once the Iran war ends, which is not the case for Democrats.

Recent data from multiple sources aligns with these findings. A July Pew Research poll showed that 41% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents now view the economy as excellent or good, down 8 percentage points from January. Conversely, the share of Republicans who believe Trump's policies have worsened the economy rose from 18% to 28%, while those who think the policies have improved conditions dropped from 57% to 42%.

The White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the administration's economic agenda, stating that the hard data of consumer spending and retail sales consistently show that the American consumer remains resilient, thanks to the President's economic policies of tax cuts and deregulation. He assured that Americans can count on more progress under the administration's economic policies and trade deals.

However, the bottom line remains that the election will hinge on the economy, with inflation and the ongoing Iran war adding to the mounting challenges. Even Trump's bedrock support among Republicans is starting to waver.