Iran sanctions: the wrong lesson

The Trump administration's sweeping economic sanctions against Iran are the most severe offensive the United States has ever waged against an adversary. These sanctions impose severe restrictions on any third party engaging with Iran, potentially shutting them out of the US financial system. While sanctions have historically weakened authoritarian regimes and pressured them into concessions, they rarely result in regime change.

In fact, the burden of sanctions often falls on ordinary citizens, who suffer from poverty and corruption. The Assad regime in Syria exemplifies this pattern, where sanctions have persisted for over two decades, but the regime remains intact. The same can be said for Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, and Iran. Iran may respond to these sanctions by drawing on its accumulated tools, such as shadow fleets, shell companies, smuggling networks, proxies, and cooperation with China and Russia.

The regime will also use regional influence to circumvent sanctions and maintain control at home. While external pressure may provide a pretext for harsher repression, it could also push Iran towards negotiation, heightened threats, and a turn towards nuclear weapons, potentially adopting the North Korean model for protection. The lesson from these examples is that sanctions alone are unlikely to topple Iran's ideological regime.