Here are three scenarios that could drive gold above $5,000

Jefferies has developed a new quantitative model for forecasting gold prices, setting its target at $4,650 per ounce by the end of the year, surpassing traditional predictors like interest rates and the US dollar. This model emphasizes central bank reserve behavior and fiscal deficits. The new model highlights three potential scenarios that could push gold prices above $5,000 per ounce:

1. A resurgence of fiscal deficits comparable to the 14% of GDP witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

2. A significant decline in the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves falling below 40%.

3. Central banks doubling their current rate of gold acquisitions.