Crude Check: Prices could moderate

Oil prices experienced a rally over the past week, with Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange reaching $96.30 per barrel, and crude oil futures in the domestic market hitting ₹8,578 per barrel. Both saw a 9.3% and 7.4% increase respectively. Brent crude futures experienced a price surge in the first half of last week, which held steady during the latter half.

However, the price is expected to correct, possibly hitting $98, a level where a rising trendline intersects. This could trigger a price drop to $90.50, its 21-day moving average. Support at $88.75 follows, and a breach of this could make the outlook bearish. If Brent crude futures break above $98, it could continue the rally to $101.50, potentially lifting the contract to $110.

Conversely, a rally past $98 could push the contract to $110. Looking at Indian crude oil futures, the Sept contract rallied last week to a high of ₹8,791 on Thursday before ending the week at ₹8,578. A weekly close above ₹8,500 could be a positive sign, indicating buying interest between ₹8,400 and ₹8,600. Hence, a further upward movement is probable.

However, before the next surge, the contract might settle around ₹8,085, the 21-day moving average. A rally from the present rate of ₹8,578 or after a dip to ₹8,085 could push crude oil futures to ₹9,000. A break above ₹9,000 could send the contract soaring to ₹10,000. On the flip side, breaching the ₹8,000 support could drive crude oil futures down to ₹7,500.

The recommended trade strategy involves buying crude oil futures if the price dips to ₹8,100, with a target of ₹9,000 and a stop-loss at ₹7,800.