This “Supersized” El Niño Is Only Just Beginning to Wreak Its Havoc
This story was originally published by WIRED and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. The world’s leading weather organization is sounding the alarm about this year’s super El Niño, issuing its most certain forecast in the history of the organization. In an update issued early Thursday, the World Meteorological Organization predicted a “nearly 100% likelihood” that […]
This year’s “supersized” El Niño, the world’s leading weather organization warns, is only just beginning to unleash its devastating effects. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its most definitive forecast in history, predicting a “nearly 100% likelihood” that the El Niño will persist through February. This is the strongest El Niño on record, and its impacts are already being felt across the globe.
El Niño, a naturally occurring weather phenomenon marked by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, disrupts weather patterns worldwide. Scientists have been warning since the start of the year that a particularly strong El Niño was on the horizon. The latest forecasts suggest this El Niño will be unprecedented in its intensity, with global average temperatures rising by roughly 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.2 to 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) due to the release of heat into the atmosphere.
This El Niño’s intensity means 2027 could be the hottest year on record. Because it takes time for the extra heat to work through the climate system, the following year may be even hotter. This amplified warming is a major concern, especially when combined with the warming caused by human-induced climate change. The UN has warned that the world is likely to cross the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold within the next few years.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources research network describes this El Niño as so large that its consequences may be beyond current understanding. He warns against making specific predictions, emphasizing that the impacts will almost certainly be massive. Regions typically experiencing dry conditions during El Niño have already seen the emergence of drought.
In Sudan, low water levels in the Nile exacerbate an ongoing hunger crisis, while Puerto Rico has implemented water rationing due to prolonged dryness and infrastructure failures.
Fisheries in the eastern Pacific have also been severely affected by the unusually warm waters. As El Niño intensifies, the race is on between rising risks and the urgency to take climate action and protect people. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stresses that the science leaves no room for doubt: “The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
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