‘Things happen’: How Vance’s comment on Iran wedding strike fits US pattern

Vice President JD Vance dismissed the use of the term "war" to describe the ongoing conflict with Iran, stating that "there is no active shooting." This assertion was made during a White House press briefing when asked whether the six-month-old conflict would conclude before the November midterm elections. Vance emphasized that the U.S. had a responsibility to carry out the recent strikes against Iran due to its continued targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The vice president's comments highlight the challenge Trump and his administration face in persuading American voters to maintain Republican control of Congress, despite the unpopularity of the conflict that they claimed would be brief. The fighting has led to increased gas prices and inflation, with Brent crude prices reaching over $95 per barrel, up from around $72 per barrel prior to the conflict.

Vance reiterated that he doesn't want to set artificial timelines, but acknowledges that predicting when the conflict will end is uncertain. He pointed out that the White House's claim of a return to prewar levels of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz is unconvincing, as shipping data shows traffic remains far below prewar levels. In fact, over the past 28 days, only 5 million barrels a day have exited the strait on average, compared to 130 or more daily transits before the war.

Despite Iran's refusal to back down, Trump has pursued a strategy combining economic pressure with threats of escalation. However, analysts argue it would be difficult for the president to agree to any plan that would enable Iran to claim control of the strategic strait.