Super El Niño could have unexpected effect on UK winter
An El Niño is usually expected to herald a cold end to winter in the UK – but this year could be different
A powerful "Super El Niño" building in the Pacific Ocean may have an unforeseen impact on the UK's winter weather, potentially bringing prolonged wet and stormy conditions into spring, warns the Met Office's long-range forecasting expert. This unusually strong El Niño, which is already one of the most intense on record, can lead to a shift in prevailing wind patterns, causing the UK to experience predominantly westerly winds during the later stages of winter.
While these westerly winds could still result in cold temperatures, they are not expected to be as extreme as in typical El Niño years. The 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Niños, both of which were powerful, saw a similar pattern in the UK, with a mild and wet late winter followed by westerly winds. This phenomenon could have significant implications for the UK, potentially leading to saturated soils and an increased risk of flooding, but also offering the opportunity to replenish water reserves after a dry summer.
However, accurately predicting the influence of a strong El Niño compared to a typical one remains challenging due to limited historical data and the inherent difficulty in forecasting weather patterns months in advance. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also warned that the current El Niño is intensifying and is expected to be the largest on record, potentially causing drought, flooding, and extreme temperatures worldwide, peaking in November and persisting until at least February 2027.
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