Ratingagentur: Trotz steigender Schulden – Scope gibt Deutschland Top-Rating

Berlin - Despite rising debt levels and increasing borrowing costs, European credit rating agency Scope has reaffirmed Germany's highest credit rating of 'AAA' and maintained its outlook as "stable." The agency's assessment is based on Germany's prosperous, large, and diversified economy, solid public finances, and strong external position. However, they point out certain risks, such as global geopolitical and trade risks, transition risks associated with climate neutrality goals, and an aging population.

The analysts from Scope predict that Germany's federal debt will significantly increase in the coming years. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 63.5% at the end of 2025 to 73.9% by 2031. This is due to expanded credit-financed government spending on infrastructure and defense. However, the debt level will still be below the peak of 81% in 2010 following the global financial crisis.

The industrial countries' sovereign debt has again come under the spotlight of financial markets due to higher inflation expectations. Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 3.4% in recent days, reaching its highest level since April 2011.

Higher borrowing costs are a negative development for German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, as they make it more expensive to borrow new money and reduce the room for other expenditures like investments or social benefits. For the current year, Scope forecasts economic growth in Germany to be 0.8%. While some economic research institutes, like the Munich Ifo Institute, are more optimistic and forecast up to 1.4% growth, primarily driven by domestic demand, including government spending programs.

Germany has received the top 'AAA' rating from all major credit rating agencies, indicating an extremely low probability of default if the German government borrows money. This favorable credit profile provides Germany with fresh funds more conveniently compared to other countries. Only a few countries, besides Germany, have received the top rating from major credit rating agencies.