Oil: Elevated prices face fragile support – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices, including ICE Brent above US$95/bbl, remain supported by heightened US-Iran tensions and robust Iraqi exports routed via the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices are currently trading above US$95 per barrel, with ICE Brent standing at a similar level. Analysts from ING, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, attribute this elevated price level to heightened US-Iran tensions and robust Iraqi exports making their way through the Strait of Hormuz. However, they caution that if the Hormuz flows remain uninterrupted and Saudi Arabia maintains its official selling prices at a $2 per barrel discount for October loadings, the upward pressure on oil prices may diminish despite tight refined product markets.
The recent spike in hostilities between the US and Iran, including Iran firing missiles into neighboring Gulf countries, has provided a temporary boost to crude prices. However, the rally may lose momentum if the smooth movement of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continues.
Iraq's oil exports have surged to a record high since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, reaching 2.35 million barrels per day in August. Of this, approximately 2.26 million barrels per day have been exported via southern routes, which would inevitably have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has decided to keep its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light unchanged at a $2 per barrel discount for October loadings, contrary to the expectation of an increase. This decision suggests that the market conditions are not as tight as previously anticipated.
Conversely, refined product markets remain significantly tight. The latest data from Insights Global shows a sharp decline in refined product inventories in the ARA region, falling by 118kt week-on-week to 4.15 million tonnes. This decline was driven by naphtha, gasoil, and jet fuel.
Unless Persian Gulf and/or Russian diesel flows recover, the market is likely to become even tighter as we approach winter. This tightness in middle distillates is not confined to Europe, as US diesel crack spreads have surged above $100 per barrel, and retail diesel prices in the US have reached their highest level since mid-2022.
In summary, while oil prices are currently elevated due to geopolitical tensions and robust Iraqi exports, the tightness in refined product markets and the potential impact of smooth Hormuz shipments could lead to a reversal in the upward price trend as we head into the winter season.
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