New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Promised a Policy "Regime Change" to Defeat Inflation When He Took Over in January 2026. Has He Delivered?

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh vowed a policy regime change to tackle inflation when he assumed leadership in January 2026. However, 100 days into his term, the Fed's approach remains uncertain. The Fed's primary inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.7% in the year ending July 2026, suggesting inflation may not be on track to meet its 2% target.

Despite launching five policy task forces and shortening policy statements, the Fed has not provided as many clues as previous Chair Jerome Powell. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell slightly in July, core PCE and mortgage rates remain elevated. Warsh acknowledges inflation is still too high, but the market's response to recent asset performance questions whether the regime change is material.

The odds of a September rate hike stand at 66% as of September 1, signaling continued monetary policy uncertainty.