Neste stock jumps 2.5% after Goldman Sachs upgrade

Neste (HE:NESTE) shares have surged 2.5% following Goldman Sachs' upgrade of the stock to Buy from Neutral, accompanied by an increased price target of €40 from €32. The investment bank's upgrade is supported by several positive factors that have emerged since July, such as heightened geopolitical risks, supply disruption concerns, and the extension of Russia’s diesel export ban until the end of September.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs highlighted broader regulatory support for renewable fuels across Europe, beyond Germany, and the removal of the US small refinery exemptions overhang. The firm noted that Neste has underperformed its peers by 25 percentage points year-to-date and 20 percentage points over the past month. While Neste's 2027 renewable sales volumes expectations have moved lower following Q2 2026 results, Goldman Sachs still maintains that stronger margins should compensate for this impact.

The investment bank's forecasts are currently around 5% below consensus on volumes, but following estimate revisions, Goldman Sachs' 2027 EBITDA forecast is projected to be approximately 30% above consensus. With the new €40 price target, this implies a potential upside of around 25% from the current levels.

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