Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU zwischen Linke und AfD - komplizierter Weg zur Mehrheit

In Sachsen-Anhalt, CDU is caught between the Left and AfD in a complex path to majority, as Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze (CDU) faces a crucial discussion just hours before the election. Sepp Müller, the Union faction leader, stated in a Politico podcast that if the survey results match the election outcome, the AfD will take on the responsibility of forming the government.

Müller expressed regret for Schulze's efforts, stating that Schulze is doing a good job. While it is common for the party with the most votes to claim a government mandate and attempt to form a coalition, it does not guarantee that the majority will be organized or that a government can be formed. Müller's statements have significant implications for the upcoming Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt.

The current situation shows that the AfD, led by Ulrich Siegmund, is ahead of the CDU by up to 20 percentage points. However, it is unclear if the AfD will secure an absolute majority. Recent polls suggest that an absolute majority for the AfD is unlikely. It is also considered very unlikely that Schulze's desired outcome of a majority for the so-called center parties (CDU, SPD, and Greens) will happen.

The most probable scenario is that neither the AfD nor any party beyond the AfD without the Left will achieve an absolute majority. Within the CDU, there are three main camps in case this scenario occurs. One group strongly opposes an AfD-led government and would cooperate with the Left if necessary. Others fear many resignations in the CDU and suggest acting with changing majorities, including the AfD.

However, this is opposed by the Left and the SPD and Greens, whose presence in the parliament could prevent an absolute majority for the AfD. The third camp advocates Sepp Müller's approach: if the gap between the AfD and CDU remains as large as in the surveys, they believe the AfD should receive the government mandate to prevent the CDU from shifting further left in the long run.

This could lead to an absolute majority for the AfD in the next election. There are two possible outcomes: either the Left forms the government with the help of the AfD, or the AfD takes responsibility. If the CDU chooses Müller's strategy, it seems that Siegmund will not run for the Ministerpräsident post while still uncertain about the majority.

Müller assumes that there won't be any election helpers for Siegmund in this situation. There are even speculations that Siegmund might not secure all AfD votes. Siegmund himself emphasizes the need for an absolute majority and has rejected a minority AfD-led government, stating, "I need a stable majority." This would result in a possible multi-month stalemate, with the current Schulze government continuing to operate in an emergency capacity.

There is no deadline for forming a new government. The CDU would hold the AfD responsible for the caretaker period and potentially then attempt to form a government with the Left, but this would still require cooperation with the Left.