La subida de tipos de la Fed podría hacer caer un 5% las bolsas europeas

Un informe de Bank of America sugiere que una subida de tipos de la Reserva Federal en septiembre podría provocar una caída del 5% en las bolsas europeas. The report warns that rising interest rates from the Fed could pressure valuation multiples and result in the European equity market falling by 5%. Economists at the bank expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at this meeting, and a total of 75 basis points by year-end.

While inflation is driven in part by specific factors such as tariffs and Iran, the bank estimates that underlying inflation stands at around 2.5% year-over-year and remains too high compared to the objective. Labor market risks have decreased compared to last year, potentially justifying the past year's cuts based on labor market weakness.

A Fed rate hike in September could provide a bullish boost to Treasury bond yields, affecting stock multiples, according to the firm. The American investment bank calculates that a 10-point increase in the real yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond over the past week explains the drop in the European Stoxx 600 index during that period, leaving the index about 2% below its historical maximum in August.

Therefore, a Fed rate hike in September is likely to present the risk of further market decline. A bearish scenario would be that a September hike leads to a complete reassessment of Fed expectations, consistent with the base case of 75 basis points of hikes this year, which could add an additional 5% drag to the European equity market due to the pressure of rates on multiples.