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Malaysia faces the risk of a second oil price shock this year as global supply tightens, an analyst warns. The second shock could be more costly because there is less room to absorb another major disruption, according to Jamil Ghani from the Institute of Strategic and International Studies. Global oil inventories have fallen to around 410 million barrels since the war in the Western Asia began, and if colder weather and seasonal demand combine with another supply shock, prices could rise sharply due to dwindling buffers.

While there is a real risk of a second oil price shock, Jamil does not say a second winter energy crisis is impossible or likely at this stage. The main concern is that some of the oil reserves that helped absorb the first shock have already been used. In addition, the pressure on supply could rise as primary oil users return to the market to purchase new supplies.

For example, China, which had about 1.49 billion barrels in strategic oil reserves at the end of 2026, is not yet close to exhausting its reserves, but pressure begins to build before the reserves run out. When a country reduces its holdings, it needs to buy more supply while it can, creating additional demand on top of normal consumption.

This could put pressure on the market from several angles at once. If big buyers return aggressively to the market, competition for crude, refined products, tankers and delivery slots could increase, along with the costs of ensuring supply. Petronas faces tighter financial constraints as it enters the second half of the year after using more resources to safeguard Malaysia's energy supply, such as diversifying fuel supplies and acquiring alternative liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage.

Besides investing in new infrastructure to strengthen Malaysia's ability to cope with future disruptions, Petronas has bought stakes in Saudi Aramco's Pengerang Refining Company and Petrochemical Company to support Malaysia's energy security. It has also signed a deal with QatarEnergy to take two million tons of LNG per year from 2028 to bolster long-term supplies for the Peninsula.

These steps increase Malaysia's energy buffer capacity, but at the same time, they tie up more cash in operations, inventories, working capital, and investments. Petronas records an operating cash flow of RM47.5 billion for the first six months of the year, slightly lower than the same period last year due to outflows of working capital.

The balance sheet also shows higher debt and lower cash and cash equivalents. Jamil says this means higher oil prices should not be seen as easy profits for Petronas, which uses large financial resources to ensure supply during crises, even though there is no specific figure showing the total cost. Ensuring energy safety still costs a lot, even if there is no real shortage.

Petronas must fund alternatives, higher logistics costs, inventory, and working capital, while continuing to invest in production and infrastructure. Profitability remains expensive for Petronas even when the company does not experience a real shortage. Petronas still needs cash to run operations, buy crude and LNG, maintain fuel stocks, invest in projects and new infrastructure, and meet debt obligations.

There is no easy figure for how much Petronas needs to save, depending on how much it needs to invest for the future, buy fuel, pay debts, and how much financial cushion is needed if another disruption occurs. Malaysia should not only look at Petronas' profits when evaluating how prepared the country is to face energy shocks. The question is not just how much profit Petronas makes, but how much it can afford to pay.