How The U.S. Fell Behind China On Nuclear Power

The United States is the world's leading producer of nuclear power, accounting for approximately one-third of global output. Currently, there are 96 operating commercial nuclear reactors in 57 power plants spread across 28 states. However, the domestic nuclear sector is rapidly aging, with only two of the nation's reactors constructed after 2000.

On average, these reactors are 44 years old, well beyond their initial 40-year operating licenses. While the United States added just one nuclear power plant in the past decade, China added a significant 34 gigawatts of nuclear capacity during the same period. Analysts predict that China will overtake both France and the United States to become the world's largest nuclear power producer within the next five years.

The U.S. appears to be lagging behind China due to several factors, including a workforce that lacks the expertise to build new nuclear power plants and the extensive regulatory hurdles and lengthy development processes required for nuclear projects. One of the primary reasons, however, is the substantial capital investment required for these projects, which often exceed initial budgets and timelines.

When Plant Vogtle finally became operational in 2024, it was years late and billions of dollars over budget, further deterring potential investors from nuclear projects. Financial modeling for nuclear energy typically focuses on short-term project returns rather than the long-term benefits, such as energy security and public welfare.

By adopting more sophisticated economic impact models, investors may be more inclined to support nuclear projects. Despite the high upfront costs and lengthy development phases, nuclear power plants can operate efficiently for double the time frame initially considered in most financial models.