How Much Oil Is Really Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz?
Trump says the U.S. has effectively reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with 18 million barrels of oil reportedly crossing under American protection on Tuesday, close to the roughly 20 million bpd that moved through before the war. The problem is that nobody outside the U.S. government can yet verify Tuesday’s number, and the shipping data we normally rely on has become unusually difficult to read.…
The Strait of Hormuz has been reported as potentially open for oil traffic, with the United States claiming 18 million barrels of oil have passed through under its protection. However, verification of this number by external parties remains challenging. Commercial tracking services have recorded fewer vessel crossings, with Kpler noting 11 visible crossings and Lloyd's List Intelligence reporting around 12 per day between August 26 and September 1.
Military data from the U.S. also differs, indicating 44 vessels facilitated by the U.S. on September 1 and 2, or 22 a day, while its independent tracking shows fewer numbers. The discrepancy in these figures arises from the differing categories of vessels being counted. Washington's data could be accurate, but the true figure remains uncertain due to limited data availability.
The actual flow of oil through Hormuz is estimated to be between 8.6 to 10 million barrels per day, based on reconstructed export data, which does not include barrels exiting via alternative routes. This figure is still significantly lower than prewar levels. The uncertainty surrounding the 18 million bpd claim highlights the difficulties in accurately assessing the openness of the Strait of Hormuz.
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