Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery stalls below $4.500 awaiting US Nonfarm Payrolls

Silver prices are currently trapped beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), as market participants await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The 100-day SMA stands at $67, acting as a key resistance level, while the metal trades around $66.80. The US economy is expected to add 56,000 jobs in August after losing 23,000 jobs in July, with the Unemployment Rate forecast to remain at 4.1%.

These figures are anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's decision during its September 15-16 monetary policy meeting. A robust NFP outcome may maintain Silver prices below the 100-day SMA; conversely, a weak report could pave the way for a bullish breakout. At present, Silver is trading above the 50-day SMA at $62 but below the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, indicating a neutral near-term bias with slight upside potential.

Momentum indicators suggest limited bullish strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 17, signifying weak underlying trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, but diminishing red histogram bars imply easing bearish momentum, signaling a consolidation phase.

On the downside, the 50-day SMA ($62) and the psychological $60 level form a robust support zone, followed by a stronger horizontal floor around $55. Immediate resistance on the upside is the 100-day SMA ($67) and the 200-day SMA ($72). A breach above these levels could pave the way for prices heading towards the $80 mark.