GMS Week 36 – STRIKES RETURN, FREIGHT SOARS

Strikes resumed and freight surged after the sanctions package was imposed last week. Iranian retaliation to U.S. strikes brought an end to the recent calm, and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dipped below pre-conflict levels. Gulf-positioned candidates now face passage, insurance, and physical security concerns instead of sanctions paperwork.

The strait is operating, but normalcy has not been restored. Oil prices followed the escalation, with Brent trading near USD 95.7 and WTI around USD 91.6 on Friday, up 7% and 10% week-over-week, respectively. The market has absorbed multiple interruptions, but the inventory cushion is no longer considered infinite. Rising crude prices increase voyage and import costs across the region, as buyers become more selective.

Dry freight proved to be a clearer sign of the situation, as the Baltic Dry Index rose to 3,488 on Thursday, its highest level since October 2021. The increase is significant enough to keep bulkers trading and owners patient. The Indian Rupee strengthened against the Dollar, while the Pakistani Rupee and Turkish Lira showed opposite trends.

Pakistan's August inflation rose to 11.1%, while Turkey's annual inflation decreased slightly to 31.51%. Although the macro picture is mixed, India gained the most benefit domestically. Physical activity at the ports surpassed fresh business, with several vessels converting from waiting to delivery status. However, no new market sales were reported.

Both Bangladesh and Pakistan have cooled as their top buyers fulfilled their immediate needs, while India is improving from its lower position. The distinction remains significant: tonnage is flowing through the ports, but owners have not yet begun the next cycle. The Bangladesh investigation concluded last week, identifying safety supervision and gas-testing shortcomings, particularly around ballast-tank work and hydrogen sulfide risks.

The Ministry of Industries has issued recommendations and tighter recycling certification expectations for non-HKC-flagged vessels. This procedural development provides a formal lesson learned and a new checklist for the industry. September started with Pakistan still leading but no longer facing the urgency seen in August, Bangladesh lower as first-tier demand is met, and India seeing improved fundamentals and a greater appetite.

Freight continues to keep potential candidates trading, the Gulf remains active but risky, and fresh supply remains scarce. The yards have been supplied, but the sales list remains unfilled. For Week 36 of 2026, GMS Market Rankings/Vessel indications are as follows.