EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strong recovery from 100-day MA ahead of US NFP data

During the early European trading hours on Friday, the AUD/JPY cross appeared in positive territory near 112.80. However, the potential upside for the cross may be restricted as traders increased their bets on a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike, which is boosting the Japanese Yen (JPY). BoJ board member Hajime Takata stated that the central bank should take interest rate hikes cautiously to address increasing inflationary pressure, rather than adhering to a fixed semiannual pace expected by markets.

Analysts anticipate that the Japanese central bank might be more hawkish than previously thought during their meeting on September 17-18. "This feels less like a short squeeze and more like the market cautiously reassessing a more hawkish BOJ path," said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management in Tokyo.

BNY strategists caution that, despite recent official actions, they remain skeptical that Japanese authorities can generate sustained JPY appreciation through intervention alone, as the government's policy stance remains reflationary and inflation is already higher. On the daily chart, AUD/JPY shows a bearish near-term tone as it moves below the 100-day simple moving average and the Bollinger middle band.

Initial resistance near the 100-day SMA (113.20) and the Bollinger middle band (113.40) could offset current downside pressure. A break above these levels would be needed to ease the downside pressure, with the upper Bollinger band (115.05) as a more distant cap. Downside support comes at the lower Bollinger band (111.80), where any follow-through selling could expose the July 3 low (111.33) and the August 4 low (110.01).