Debunking the ‘Tina’ doctrine: Nomura warns AI-driven rally masks US vulnerabilities
The artificial intelligence boom has signalled growing risks in the US economy and capital markets, with a setback in the technology rally potentially triggering a sharp correction in US assets and weakening the dollar, according to a Nomura report. “The AI boom has masked a rising US risk premium,” Nomura analysts led by Rob Subbaraman said in a report on Thursday, warning that the concentration…
Nomura has issued a warning that the artificial intelligence-driven rally in US assets may be masking underlying vulnerabilities in the US economy and capital markets. According to the report, the concentration of global savings in US dollar assets has left investors increasingly exposed to a reversal in the AI-driven US equity rally.
Nomura analysts warn that a sharp decline in US equities could have broader implications for global capital flows, particularly if foreign investors begin to reduce their holdings of US assets. The bank's data shows that US NIIP liabilities have reached 80% of the combined assets of all net creditor nations, and have quadrupled to $37.4 trillion in March 2026 from $9.2 trillion before the global financial crisis.
Nomura's report seeks to debunk the assumed robustness of the "Tina" doctrine, which assumes there is no alternative to US assets.
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