Citi and ANZ raise Brent crude forecasts on Middle East supply disruptions

Citi and ANZ have raised their forecasts for Brent crude oil prices amid ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. Citi's third-quarter 2026 forecast for Brent crude has been raised to $86 per barrel, citing an unsustainable situation including a U.S. blockade of Iran and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank anticipates reopening of the waterway in the fourth quarter, potentially restoring a surplus of 3-4 million barrels per day to the market.

ANZ has increased its short-term Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel, noting the market is in a delicate phase of adaptation as inventories decline and more demand destruction is needed to rebuild stocks. ANZ estimates the conflict will remove 2.3-2.4 billion barrels of Persian Gulf supply in 2026, with losses surpassing 2 billion barrels by the end of October.