Bitcoin just broke US$81,000: The real reason is not what you think

Bitcoin rose 5.08% in a single day, reaching $81,106.29, outpacing the broader crypto market's 4.83% gain. The rally was not driven by a crypto-specific breakout, as Bitcoin now shows strong correlation to the S&P 500 (97%) and gold (86%). This suggests that the move is macro-driven, reflecting shifting expectations about Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's dovish comments on holding interest rates steady if inflation improves led to a drop in the probability of a September rate hike from 63% to about 50%. Easing US-Iran tensions and a lack of oil price concerns also contributed to the relief. The White House's dovish remarks further reinforced the message that the Fed would not tighten aggressively.

With Treasury yields no longer expected to surge, capital flowed back into equities and high-beta assets like Bitcoin, propelling the price upward. This macro-fueled repricing confirms Bitcoin's role as a sensitive macro asset. The immediate catalyst for the next move will be the August Non-Farm Payrolls report on September 4. Soft jobs data would strengthen the dovish case and potentially extend gains.

Conversely, a strong report could reignite concerns about a rate hike, putting pressure on the market. Additionally, a significant short squeeze in the derivatives market, with over $415 million in Bitcoin short positions liquidated in 24 hours, played a major role in the price surge.