Bitcoin is trading more like an ‘amplified version of gold’ again, but the four-year cycle theory threatens further declines

Bitcoin has traded like a safe haven against gold this week, as investors flee volatility and seek refuge amid rising inflation fears. The cryptocurrency broke out of a range between $60,000 and $70,000 and reached a four-month high of $82,262 before pulling back. However, the recent rally may be short-lived, as some traders point to the four-year cycle theory, which suggests Bitcoin's bear market lows and bull market tops occur every four years.

If this theory holds true, the next bear market bottom could come in November 2026, four years after the last bottom in November 2022. This cycle is linked to Bitcoin's halving, which reduces miner rewards, and is supported by figures like Galaxy's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. Despite the potential for a short-term decline, Fidelity's vice president of research, Chris Kuiper, advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective, stating that historically, a long holding period has been beneficial.