Bert Rürup: Abstieg einer Weltmacht

The decline of a global power is not an overnight phenomenon. Typically, a country's dominance fades gradually. After World War II, the United States emerged as the leading power, filling the void left by the collapsing British Empire. Roughly half of the world's industrial output was concentrated in the US, the dollar became the undisputed currency of the world, and international institutions like the World Bank, IMF, WTO, and NATO were established under American leadership.

The fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 marked the victory of the free world, led by the US. However, the renowned American political scientist Yoshihiro Francis Fukuyama's proclamation of the end of history turned out to be hugely inaccurate.

On September 11, 2001, Islamic terrorists carried out four coordinated hijackings and subsequent suicide attacks on the US, exposing the vulnerability of the world's superpower. The subsequent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did not end the US as triumphant victors. In 2001, China also experienced a historic moment. The country joined the World Trade Organization and was chosen as the host of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

China rapidly caught up technologically, inflicting severe economic damage on its rival. This first "China shock," the influx of cheap consumer goods from China, led to the loss of over two million industrial jobs in the US. It appeared that the US had become economically vulnerable, perhaps even vulnerable to defeat.