Super El Niño threatens to deepen Sri Lanka’s drought and economic woes
By Ifham Nizam A potentially dangerous El Niño is gathering strength across the Pacific, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate event is expected to become very strong and continue into February 2027, raising the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and major disruptions to rainfall patterns worldwide. The warning has particular […]
A potentially powerful El Niño weather event is intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Experts predict this climate phenomenon will become extremely strong and persist until February 2027, heightening concerns of drought, floods, extreme heat, and major disruptions to rainfall patterns worldwide.
Sri Lanka, a country already grappling with severe drought, is particularly vulnerable. Communities in several agricultural districts are already experiencing depleted water sources and dwindling farm incomes. The WMO reports an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% chance" that El Niño will continue into next year, the first time the organization has issued such an unequivocal forecast.
Driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño event is expected to strengthen further, potentially peaking towards the end of this year. However, its impacts are anticipated to last well into 2027.
Meteorological authorities in Sri Lanka confirm the reality of the drought. According to a recent Reuters report, rainfall shortages ranging from 85% to 100% have been recorded in key farming regions like Ampara and Monaragala. Wells, tanks, rivers, and lakes have dried up, leaving tens of thousands of people reliant on government-provided water deliveries.
In some remote communities, residents have been waiting up to 23 days for water supplies. The drought is also taking an economic toll on rural communities, with crops withering, livestock operations disrupted, and farmers forced to seek temporary, low-paying jobs to survive.
The WMO's latest outlook warns that El Niño's consequences may not be consistent across regions. Factors such as geography, season, and other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, will influence the severity and timing of impacts. For Sri Lanka, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will play a crucial role.
The WMO anticipates a positive IOD, with a September to November seasonal mean of about 0.9°C. This could alter the normal influence of El Niño on rainfall patterns, potentially exposing Sri Lanka to both continued drought and an increased risk of intense rainfall, floods, and landslides later in the year.
Given the climate's increasing variability, Sri Lanka must prepare for both prolonged water shortages and sudden, destructive rainfall events. The warning should be viewed as a significant economic and national-planning issue, impacting various sectors such as agriculture, drinking water, electricity generation, food imports, public expenditure, and rural livelihoods.
Written by urgent.news from The Island Sri Lanka's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
