Russia Says Oil Output Drop Is Temporary as Refineries Restart
The dip in Russian oil production is only temporary, as output is expected to recover once refineries come back online after unscheduled maintenance, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday. “This is a temporary phenomenon, and, generally, oil production will increase as the refineries resume operations and the situation stabilizes,” Novak said, as carried by Russian news agency…
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated on Thursday that the nation's oil production dip is expected to be short-lived, as refineries are anticipated to resume operations and boost output once stability returns. The Russian news agency TASS reported Novak's comments. Amid the ongoing fuel crisis in Russia, authorities have been working to alleviate concerns and emphasize the resumption of refinery operations, which have been significantly impacted by relentless Ukrainian drone strikes.
Novak also noted that fuel supply has improved this week, as authorities aim to downplay the refinery outages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia has been grappling with a gasoline and diesel shortage since the spring, when Ukraine ramped up its drone attacks on Russian refineries, aiming to disrupt fuel supply both to the frontlines and the domestic Russian market.
The country has imposed a ban on diesel exports, currently valid until the end of September, which has further tightened global middle distillate markets. However, oil production has also been affected due to attacks that have crippled both refinery operations and export capacities, particularly at terminals in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.
Following a year of heightened sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries, ports, and tankers, Russia's crude output has declined further in the second half of 2026, according to consultancy Rystad Energy's latest forecast. The company revised its Russian crude production outlook to an average of 8.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, with a projected decline to around 8.6 million bpd in 2027, a decrease of approximately 90,000 bpd from the previous estimate.
Rystad Energy Vice President, Oil & Gas Research Daria Melnik highlighted that the frequent and effective drone attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure have started to impact not just refineries but also the upstream sector. Every barrel not processed by a refinery must either be exported, stored, or removed from production.
While Russia managed to absorb the imbalance in June and July, Melnik pointed out that its export system has struggled to consistently handle the additional volumes.
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