Overall and serotype-specific dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico, 2016–2023: A modelling study of case-notification data

A modelling study of dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico from 2016 to 2023 has revealed significant spatial, temporal, and serotype-specific variations. Mexico and the Americas region have seen an increase in dengue cases recently, raising concerns about the potential impact of climate change on future transmission. Previous research had identified spatial differences in long-term dengue risk, but this study aimed to assess the year-to-year changes in transmission and the relative importance of each of the four dengue serotypes.

Using case data from Mexico's National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) for a total of 833,629 probable or confirmed cases, researchers employed catalytic models and a newly developed serotype-specific extension to analyze transmission intensity across the country's 27 states. The findings showed large variations in transmission intensity, with DENV-1 and DENV-2 historically being the most prevalent and intense, followed by DENV-3, and DENV-4 exhibiting the lowest transmission intensity throughout the study period.

Recent years have seen a rise in DENV-3 transmission intensity in some states, coinciding with major outbreaks. The study emphasizes the importance of advanced diagnostic tools, such as RT-PCR testing and rapid diagnostic tests, which can differentiate between infecting serotypes. This data can contribute to a better understanding of dengue infection burdens and inform the design of more effective interventions in future analyses.