Ordinary Traffic Is Where Military and Criminal Threats Hide
A vessel’s AIS track goes quiet. A ship slows and holds position outside a shipping lane. A port call shows cargo that doesn’t match what left the previous port. Each of these is the same kind of event — a break from a known pattern. None of them says, on its own, what kind of ...
The challenges faced by navies in detecting and distinguishing military and criminal threats in ordinary maritime traffic are significant. Deviations from normal patterns, such as a vessel's AIS going dark, slowing down, or deviating from its route, can be indicative of various threats. However, these deviations can also be attributed to legitimate activities.
Both state actors and criminal networks exploit the ambiguity of ordinary traffic to carry out their activities. For instance, a state actor might test an approach to a coastline or an installation, while a criminal network may engage in smuggling or sanctions evasion. The initial signs of these threats are often similar and require further analysis to differentiate them.
The difficulty lies in the fact that most vessel traffic is routine and expected. A navy cannot afford to stop and inspect every deviation, as it would disrupt commercial shipping and economic activities. Therefore, the challenge is to establish a routine picture that allows for the identification of anomalies.
State-directed threats typically involve a vessel owned by a military entity that has approached a specific stretch of coastline without a cargo or port call to justify its action. Confirming the identity of such a vessel through imagery can help establish a behavioral baseline for future detection. On the other hand, criminal networks often exhibit ship-to-ship meetings outside declared shipping lanes, where AIS communication is absent.
This, along with a port call involving inconsistent declared cargo, can raise suspicions of criminal activity.
However, individual signals of suspicion are not conclusive on their own. They need to be correlated with other data sources, such as remote sensing and behavioral history, to build a comprehensive picture. This correlation is crucial in distinguishing between state-directed and criminal activities.
The process of detecting and resolving these threats requires a multi-sensor intelligence system that fuses all available signals. This allows navies to correlate AIS data, remote sensing information, and behavioral history to identify patterns and correlations that indicate a particular threat. It is a complex process that demands close coordination and analysis of multiple data points to minimize the risk of false positives or negatives.
In conclusion, the ambiguity of ordinary maritime traffic poses significant challenges for navies in detecting and distinguishing military and criminal threats. While deviations can be indicative of various activities, their interpretation depends on a comprehensive analysis of multiple data sources. Building behavioral baselines and correlating data points are essential steps in identifying and resolving these threats effectively.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
