On new GDP series, wrong questions and opaque answers

A former finance secretary has challenged the official growth figures for the first half of FY2026-27, calling them far too high compared to the actual growth rates. However, his method to calculate the correct rates is flawed as it mixes old and new statistical series. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) acknowledges this.

Nonetheless, this does not address the more crucial question of the significant drop in GDP estimates when changing the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. This change is not just a cosmetic tweak; it involves new data sources, wider coverage, improved indicators, and revised approaches to measuring prices and volumes. While a change of base year does alter the measurement of real GDP, it does not necessarily mean the economy has shrunk by the enormous Rs 11 lakh crore reported.

MoSPI should provide a detailed reconciliation showing how the old estimate transformed into the new one, breaking down the revision into components like revised source data, changes in sectoral coverage, methodological changes, and other adjustments. This transparency would make the statistics more credible and the revision easier to understand.