Konjunktur: 1,3 Prozent mehr: Ökonomen erwarten deutlich stärkeres Wachstum in diesem Jahr

The latest economic forecasts for Germany suggest a significantly stronger growth than previously anticipated. The Kieler Institute for World Economy (IfW) anticipates a GDP growth of 1.3% for 2026, up from the 0.8% predicted in the summer. This optimistic outlook puts the IfW a notch ahead of the Berlin-based DIW Institute, which doubled its projection to 1.2% just last week.

For 2027, the IfW maintains a growth of 1.0%, which is expected to halve to 0.5% by 2028. The researchers from Kieler emphasize that the German economy has regained its footing, with economic dynamism accelerating recently. Despite geopolitical challenges, businesses are becoming more confident about their future prospects. However, the institute warns that the recovery remains precarious, with risks looming from the aftermath of the Iran war and underlying structural causes of sluggish economic development.

Inflation remains high at 2.7% this year and next, due to rising commodity prices stemming from the Iran conflict, which will gradually trickle down to consumers, dampening private consumption. It is only projected to drop to 1.9% by 2028. Export growth is also anticipated, despite declining competitiveness leading to further losses in global market share.

Private investment activity, however, is expected to remain restrained due to location issues. The institute anticipates that the recovery will be increasingly influenced by demographic changes, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate from 6.3% in the current year to 6.0% in 2028, but overall labor force participation falling due to a dwindling workforce.

On the contrary, the government deficit is expected to rise, with public debt increasing to 4.3% by 2028.