‘Ill-educated, egregiously wrong’: World Bank ED Mishra on row over GDP data, says growth on the upside

World Bank Executive Director Neelkanth Mishra denounced as "ill-educated" and "egregiously wrong" claims that India's economy grew by 2.6 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, when the actual growth was 7.8 percent. Mishra's comments came in response to a political dispute over the government's released growth figures, which were disputed by former finance secretary S.C. Garg.

Mishra expressed shock at the inaccurate allegations that the original base of June-2025 quarter would result in a lower growth rate for the June-2026 quarter. Garg had argued that if the base year had not been revised from ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore, the GDP growth would have been only 2.6 percent.

Mishra pointed out that with fiscal and monetary headwinds fading, and credit growth accelerating, GDP growth was trending upwards on the upside. He anticipated that consensus trend-growth estimates could potentially reach 7 percent or higher, assuming a neutral fiscal and monetary policy.

Mishra emphasized that the new data series, introduced in February 2026, had cleaned up the data and significantly improved the methodology, thereby increasing the credibility of real output estimates. He noted that several logical rebuttals had already been made to the claim that the base revision was wrong.

The World Bank official highlighted that robust indicators of economic activity, such as personal vehicle dispatches growing 35 percent YoY in August, despite only 9 percent growth in exports, indicated a strong momentum in the economy. Two-wheeler growth exceeded 20 percent, and commercial vehicle dispatches grew by more than 40 percent.

Tax collection growth had also increased significantly, while credit growth continued to exceed expectations, despite a low base. Mishra attributed the earlier belief that weak credit growth was a demand issue to a supply issue, which had since been addressed.

The World Bank executive further noted that construction indicators were robust, and there was still slack in the economy, as evidenced by weak real-wage growth. He suggested that it might take several quarters of above-trend growth to tighten monetary conditions and curb persistent inflation pressures.