Gold: Longer-term landscape improves – TD Securities

TD Securities' analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek have observed that speculation of currency intervention and less aggressive Federal Reserve commentary have bolstered precious metals, with gold moving away from short-term selling signals. They emphasize that upcoming US data will be crucial for the next upward movement, while stressing the significant improvement in the long-term outlook for gold as concerns over dollar debasement intensify.

Speculation of currency intervention has put downward pressure on the dollar, while less hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve official Waller have pushed interest rates lower. This has encouraged speculative buying in silver, palladium, and gold, as CTAs abandon nearby selling triggers. The release of non-farm payrolls on Friday and inflation data next week will be closely watched by investors in precious metals, given the renewed hawkish stance from Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole and the latest developments in the energy market.

Despite elevated hike pricing and persistent inflation concerns, determining the optimal entry point for the next leg higher in gold remains a key question.